A Willing Suspension of Disbelief

When Hillary Clinton questioned Gen. David Petraeus last September, she famously said that to believe his description of progress in Iraq required “a willing suspension of disbelief.” After the North Carolina and  Indiana  primaries, the same may now be true about her case for winning the Democratic nomination. It’s not that she can’t win, but with only 217 delegates up for grabs in the six remaining contests, the scenario for victory has become more fantastical, narrow, and painful.

Last evening was a flurry of confusion and drama, as North Carolina turned into a much less closer race than most pundits had predicted. The Clinton campaign had expressed optimism in the days leading up to the latest episode of Survivor: The Primaries. Not that they thought that they could win the Tar Heel State. But they thought they were competitive. They thought that the economic issue was working there. They thought that the gas tax issue was working there. And they thought that Senator Barack Obama had made some strategic mistakes in engaging on those issues rather than trying to solidify his base. Clearly those assumptions turned out to be incorrect as Clinton lost decisively in North Carolina, giving Obama not just a bump in the pledged delegates but also a bump in the popular vote. North Carolina turned out to be a miscalculation.

Indian, on the other hand, turned into more of a nailbiter than had been expected. Most pundits had predicted that Clinton had momentum, that most elusive and valuable of campaign assets, going into the primary and that should would pull out a victory. As it turned out, Clinton eked out one of the narrowest wins of the primary season in Indiana, beating Obama by 2 percentage points. In many ways the night slipped away from Clinton. Meanwhile, it turned into a far better evening for Obama than his campaign had hoped. They know think that he is clearly on track to lock up the pledged delegate lead by the time this circus comes to a screeching halt in June if not before then — they look at May 20 as the date when they can secure a majority of the pledged delegates.

As a practical matter the pundits will put these two states together, add up the popular vote, add up the pledged delegates, and Obama will most likely come out with a pretty substantial victory. That being the case, is there really any credible scenario by which Clinton can stay in this race at this point? To be honest, Clinton has not had much of a plausible scenario for some time, even after winning Pennsylvania, given the reality of the math. Even in the face of the Reverend Wright controversy and the “they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them” speech in San Francisco, Obama has still been winning the superdelegates war. This flies in the face of the theory of how the Clinton campaign hoped to pull this one off: either freeze superdelegates or start moving them back in her direction. This has not happendd. As a result of last evening, Clinton will get almost no advantage in the pledged delegates race whereas Obama will get a pretty decent split out of North Carolina. In other words, the way the math works this translates into a clear victory for Obama as the two candidates head toward the next round of primaries. Even though Clinton is heavily favored in West Virginia next week, it will not be that worthwhile a victory as a result of last evening.

Can we then expect to see the superdelegates carry on at the pace they have been coming out already, or is this pace going to quicken now? My sense is that there is a possibility that it could quicken. They are a fickle bunch, and they are always going to be a little bit cautious about things, but I think that if Obama can build on his new momentum then more superdelegates will go for him. Whereas a consolidation could happen fairly rapidly, watch for the real push to come at the end of the primaries.

What then is the scenario by which Clinton can still put it out at this point? Last evening was a big opportunity, particularly given her recent momentum and Obama’s struggles, and she still came up empty. What scenario is left for her? Well, it is the same scenario that she has had for some time: the “hanging by a thread” scenario. Holding on, staying in it long enough, so that if something were to happen to Obama that would make him look even more vulnerable as a general election candidate, she could pounce on the opportunity. Big victories in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico would add to her number of popular votes and might cut enough into Obama’s lead so that she could argue that the Florida vote should to be counted. She would then have to continue to make that argument. It is a real long-shot, and there is no question that it got longer last night.