McCain’s BIG Challenge: Is History on His Side?

The big challenge for Senator John McCain: Staying in the spotlight during a hard-fought race for the Democratic nomination. McCain, as the Republican nominee, has more than half a year to gear up for the general election battle.

The signs are everywhere. Long lines at the polling places, huge crowds at campaign events, record contributions, and Republicans don’t like what they see. Here is perennial Presidential candidate and MSNBC Political Analyst Pat Buchanan’s analysis:  “Republicans are certainly facing an uphill battle. The President is terribly unpopular, the war is unpopular, the economy is headed into a recession, and the country believes we are moving in the wrong direction.”

Democratic rallies are turning out crowds in the tens of thousands, and it’s translating into votes. On Election Day in New Mexico, Democrats lined up and waited for as long as five hours to vote. In California, so many Democratic voters turned out in one county they ran short on ballots and had to keep the polls open late. It’s a scene repeated around the country this primary season. In state after state more Democrats showed up at the polls than Republicans, even at times when the Republican race was just as hotly contested.

In states where both parties had competitive primaries, there has been, in some cases, almost a 2:1 advantage in Democratic turnout to Republican turnout. And there’s a cash advantage. Democrats raised significantly more money in January than Republicans, and last week the Obama and Clinton campaigns announced that they raised a combined $90 million in February alone.

Despite the Democrats cash advantage, the fact that Obama and Clinton are still fighting for the nomination will work to McCain’s favor. It is going to be a very, very, very tough contest for the Democratic nomination, which might level the playing field when the fall comes.

And there is something else for McCain to consider: How much to embrace President Bush (who many voters blame for an unpopular war and a struggling economy)? Add to all of that something that’s hard to change: history. Only once since World War II has the same political party held on to the White House for three consecutive terms. McCain certainly has his work cut out for him!